The BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics is the governmental bureau that determines the employment rate that is announced each month.
Currently the employment rate is stated to be around 4.9%. However, the way in which the employment numbers are calculated have evolved over the years to make the numbers appear to be much better than they actually are.
This benefits the politicians who are in office and their debilitating economic policies. The BLS has become nothing more than another facet of the ever growing propaganda machine that our populace is just beginning to realize actually exists.
The original models used to determine employment, dating back to 1989, estimate the actual rate of unemployment to be around 23%. This is according to John Williams at Shadow Stats. www.shadowstats.com
In the past, part time jobs were never included in the employment numbers, so to skew the numbers today, the government has added the people who have not been able to get a full-time job and sometimes end up working more than one part-time job.
In this situation, when you have one person working two or more jobs, those jobs are included in the BLS employment numbers. That’s kind of like double dipping, don’t you think.
Service industry jobs, such as waiters and bartenders, make up a huge percentage of the jobs being counted as full-time jobs. These are not the kind of job descriptions that make for a strong and prosperous economy. Very few high paying, full-time jobs are being created, in fact most of the full-time manufacturing jobs are in decline.
In addition, the implementation of ObamaCare put increased financial pressure on companies to offer health insurance at higher rates for their full-time employees. So this caused employers to offer more part-time jobs so that they would not be required to take on the extra cost of carrying the health insurance for full-time employees.
Birth - Death Model
The Birth-Death Model is defined as follows: A figure that represents the net number of jobs provided from newly started businesses (births) and business closings (deaths) during a period of time, typically a month in conjunction with government-sponsored jobs reports.
The government even admits that this model is mostly speculation and based on educated guesses as to the number of new businesses created vs. those going out of business during any particular time frame.
The problem is that most of these businesses don’t report their employment stats to the government and the ones that do have a significant time lag before the numbers have any meaningful statistical value.
This is by far the most egregious model used by the BLS to skew the numbers in their favor.
A Population Out of Work
There are nearly 100 million people out of work, simply because they have stopped looking due to the unavailability of decent high paying jobs. This number is NOT included in the current BLS figures.
When you include the number of people who are out of work, simply because they can’t find a job that meets their skill level, the impact on the unemployment rate is huge. 100 million people out of work is nearly 1/3 of the US population.
When you put these three statistical models together, you begin to realize how completely bogus the employment numbers put out by the BLS actually are. That’s why among the financial community, the BLS is better known as the BLS-BS.
We’ve had our first major default of gold delivery from Deutsche Bank, one of the custodial banks represented to hold gold for the investor clients of the Xetra Gold ETF. (See article regarding Deutsche Bank’s default below.)
This is just the beginning folks, the supply of gold and silver is so tight, that as more and more investors choose to have physical gold delivered, they will be sorely disappointed as physical metal is too scarce for delivery.
This means that the paper investments of the gold and silver ETF’s are just that, nothing but paper. Therefore, you can only expect to receive fiat currency when you stand for delivery, rather than physical delivery of metal.
This will start to become a real problem as panic sets in from investors who think they have the option to receive physical delivery. There will be a stampede of investors who will opt for physical as this story gets out and as more defaults take place, the price of precious metals will skyrocket.
We are reaching critical mass in the metals markets and things are going to break soon. Stay tuned…
The precious metals markets are not the only markets paralyzed this week. Neither stocks, metals, nor bonds have moved much this week and all remain stagnant awaiting the next bombshell to hit the news.
I think that bombshell will come on September 21st when the FOMC is scheduled to announce a possible rate hike. Spoiler alert, it ain’t going to happen.
The chart below shows gold has reached resistance at the downtrend line and should be building energy for a run up to breach the flag pattern. We may have to wait until the FOMC meeting to see that happen.
Today (Thursday), we see a slight pullback from the upper trend line, however, the stochastic is showing that we are setting up for a major move to the upside. This is turning into a common bull flag pattern and a break of the upper trend line should be soon.
The following charts represent the current positions for the model portfolio which includes (ABX) (SLW) and (GDX).
You can see the similarity in the charts above to the gold chart. All have developed a bull flag pattern and have broken to the upside with the stochastic oscillator showing oversold conditions and ready for a move back up.
We are just waiting for gold to make the final break to the upside any day now.
Stock Market: (SPY) (QQQ)
Stocks are in a stagnant holding pattern, see the channel below. This usually happens when there is fear and uncertainty as to where the market direction is going. If it breaks to the downside, that might be the signal that a correction is due.
Energy Stocks: (XLE) (UNG) (USO) (LNG)
Energy stocks are anything but predictable at this time. The fundamentals indicate oil should be tanking, yet geo-political events have everybody on edge and the possibility of a military event has investors jumpy and ready for a panic buying spree.
However, the technical indicators show that oil has met resistance again at the upper trend line and should bounce back for a pullback any day now.
Commodities: (DBC) (JJG) (DBA) (JO)
A wedge pattern has formed in commodities and currently surging as the dollar loses value. I expect a pullback once it reaches resistance at the downtrend line. If the dollar continues to drop, commodities, oil and precious metals will soar.
(SLW) January 2017 CALLS
(GDX) January 2017 CALLS
(RGLD) January 2017 CALLS
(SPY) December 2016 PUTS
Deutsche Bank Fails To Deliver Gold, Fumbles Explanation
Zero Hedge today summarizes developments in what seems to be the default of a bank-backed commodity fund in Germany to deliver gold to investors as was promised. Zero Hedge’s report is headlined “Deutsche Bank Tries to Explain Why It Did Not Deliver Physical Gold, Fails” – Chris Powell
Broken Economy, Healthcare & Media – Welcome To Dystopia
Official economic statistics in the United States are all pretty much skewed, with many flaws. To make matters worse, the economic models guiding policy at the Fed reflect flawed assumptions. Modes are in fact broken, and bad academic theories are making the real economy worse off!
Greatest Crash In HISTORY? Mike Maloney Warns: This Is The Peak
Monetary historian Mike Maloney is quite confident the liquidity-driven ‘recovery’ created by the world’s central banks is now over. In his estimation, the path ahead is one of accelerating descent into inevitable currency destruction:
“Gold Will Soar”: Fund Manager Warns Writing is On the Wall For the Dollar
You saw how China treated Obama at the G20 vs. Putin. The writing is on the wall for the dollar and the U.S.If the big Central Banks resort to more QE to keep everything from collapsing, gold will SOAR. If they don’t resort to QE, everything will collapse and gold will soar in a flight to safety…