This will be my final AdvantageTrades weekly report to the public. I’m finding that my efforts to market to interested traders has been more difficult than expected and due to a lack of interest, I’ve decided to focus my time on my personal trading instead.
For those of you who have been reading and enjoying the reports, I thank you for sticking with me. There are a few friends, family and fellow traders that may still want my insight into my trading analysis, if you are one of those people, please reply with your interest in keeping in touch and I may create a private trading group just for you. It would be focused more on my actual options trade positions. As for now, enjoy the last weekly report and I wish everyone a successful 2017 and hope you are all prepared for whatever happens with the markets in the months to come.
Live long and prosper.
March - April 2017
March 29: Brexit Article 50 Officially Launched
The United Kingdom has officially left the European Union and now has two years to decouple itself from the system.
April 28: U.S. Debt Ceiling Deadline
April 28this the date that the Trump administration will have to come up with a new funding bill. This could be the line in the sand, if Trump can’t get a new funding bill approved, the government will run out of money by June and we will probably have a government shutdown. The important thing will be how this affects the markets, as this is just another stalemate between the Trump administration and the Deep State.
Gold Market Forecast into May / June
From A Wholesale Market Perspective, the Paper Markets Are Clearly Broken; An ABYSS Has Appeared Between the Paper & Physical Markets. A RESET Is Approaching…~ Andrew Maguire
(He believes by June)
April 23 – May 7: French Elections
Populist and anti-EU candidate Marine Le Pen is still expected to be a front runner. Private polls show a huge lead.
This week was options expiry week for the gold and silver futures market. You can always expect the computer algorithms to smash precious metals down as they are instructed to do right before options expiration and that’s exactly what has happened. Tuesday was options expiry for the Comex and Friday is expiration for the LBMA, so we should start to see a rebound in the metals next week.
Don’t be surprised to see a continued retrace down until next week, but any further moves down should be short term as the cycle will continue higher.
Stock Market: (SPY) (QQQ) (XLF) (IYF)
Just like the artificial paper markets in New York and London that are used to keep the price of gold and silver from rising, the western stock markets are prevented from falling by a web synthetic derivative securities and fraudulent financial reporting applications. Never before in history have stock market valuations been more disconnected from the underlying fundamental economic reality. ~ Dave Kranzler
The stock market continues its downward trend with lower highs and lower lows. If you listen to the financial media, you would think we were on our way to new highs, but the charts tell a different story. How many people do you know that look at the charts?
The S&P has already crossed the uptrend line and all indications are that it will continue in a downtrend. In fact, with the upcoming debt crisis and the French election at the end of April; May could turn into a really interesting month for the markets.
Energy Stocks: (XLE) (UNG) (USO) (LNG)
In the last couple of weeks after oil crossed the uptrend line, I explained that it might be a good time to short oil and sure enough we had a pretty good drop to new lows. Just in the past 3 days, oil has managed to bounce back to the 50 range, but I expect it to hit resistance before getting to 51 and retrace back down possibly to lower lows.
Housing Market Stocks: (DHI) (TOL) (PHM)
The housing market appears to have peaked for this latest up cycle and now we can expect the next down leg to begin. If the bond market falters at the end of April, I expect the downtrend in housing to really pick up steam.
There’s a lot of mumbling in the alternative financial circles about a possible looming market collapse in the 2nd half of 2017, triggered by a combination of events, like the debt ceiling and resulting govt. shut downs, a French election win by Marine Le Pen and a potential paper market price reset for precious metals coming this summer. Get the popcorn out; things are going to get interesting this summer and fall.
The bond market continues to trade in a choppy channel pattern. Over the next couple of weeks, probably around the 3rd or 4th week in April, I expect a break of lower support and the downtrend to continue. The fundamentals for the bond market just do not look good for the second half of 2017and this will show in the technical charts after April.
(FNV) January 2018 CALLS (Or 1year from position entry.)
(GDX) January 2018 CALLS (Or 1year from position entry.)
(ABX) January 2018 CALLS (Or 1year from position entry.)
(GG) January 2018 CALLS (Or 1year from position entry.)
(DHI) Short DHI only if we see a bounce off of resistance or if bonds continue to fall below support at 123 and hold.
(SPY) Short (SPY) if the S&P breaches support at the uptrend line.
(XLE) Short (XLE) after crude bounces off of resistance at the uptrend line.
"The resulting losses for mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, banks, and other holders of government debt might be large enough to cause some financial institutions to fail, creating a fiscal crisis."
Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.
The Trump administration seeking to penalize countries whose currencies it believes are undervalued, according to two people with direct knowledge of the review, "an effort to fulfill the president's campaign pledge to crack down on what he frequently called unfair trade."
"U.S. equity futures are headed for a third day of gains, with consensus growing that the March correction is already over and record highs will soon be hit again. I’m not so positive and here’s why..."